Muslim and Minority voters may have keys in 28 Congressional Districts
On November 3rd, the country will also elect 435 house representatives. 218 makes the majority. Democrats currently have 190 solid, 17 likely, and 14 leaning districts, while Republicans have 156 safe 16 possible and 14 leaning areas. Twenty-eight districts are toss-up. It appears that Democrats would retain the majority. However, the situation may change in communities that are leaning to either parties.
The 28 toss-up districts will witness huge spendings and focus of the two parties. There would be competition on likely and lean seats, but not very intense. Depending on the local conditions, these districts may throw some surprise.
Likely seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged. Lean are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. Toss Up are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.
Muslims can play a significant role in likely, lean, and toss-up. Among likely, lean, they can be the surprise factor, while in a toss-up, they may determine the outcome.
In the coming weeks, the articles will focus on toss-up districts. Here is a brief account of likely, lean, and toss-up areas. The name of the state appears first, followed by the community no and the name of the house representative holding it. If an incumbent is not running, it is open.
Likely Democrats: In the 17 Democrat-held seats in the current House, Republicans have an advantage in two, and the Democrats in 15.
Lean Democrats: Out of 14 lean Democratic districts, the party has an advantage in 12 and Republicans on two.
The 15 districts where Democrats are likely to retain the seats are:
CA-10 Harder, CA-39 Cisneros, FL-27 Shalala, IL-14 Underwood, IL-17 Bustos, KS-03 Davids, NH-01 Pappas, NJ-05 Gottheimer, NV-04 Horsford, NY-18 Maloney, OR-04 DeFazio, PA-17 Lamb, TX-32 Allred, WA-08 Schrier, and WI-03 Kind. The Republicans are likely to win two open seats, NC-02, NC-06
Of the lean districts, the Democrats are in the lead now in 12: AZ-01 O'Halleran, CA-48 Rouda, GA-06 McBath, GA-07 Open, MI-08 Slotkin, MI-11 Stevens, MN-02 Craig, NJ-07 Malinowski, NV-03 Lee, NY-19 Delgado, PA-07 Wild, PA-08 Cartwright, and TX-07 Fletcher. GA-7 and TX-23 are open, and Republicans have an advantage.
The Republicans currently hold these following seats, and all of them lean to Republicans: AK-AL Young, FL-15 Spano, IL-13 Davis, MI-03 Open, MI-06 Upton, MN-01 Hagedorn, MT-AL Open, NC-08 Hudson, NY-01 Zeldin, NY-24 Katko, PA-01 Fitzpatrick, TX-03 Taylor, TX-10 McCaul, VA-05 Open.
In the 16 likely seats, Republicans have the advantage to win. They hold all of them in the current House. They are: AR-02 Hill, CA-04 McClintock, CA-22 Nunes, CO-03 Open, FL-16 Buchanan, KS-02 Open, KY-06 Barr, NC-09 Bishop, NC-11 Vacant, OH-10 Turner, OH-12 Balderson, TX-02 Crenshaw, TX-06 Wright, TX-25 Williams, TX-31 Carter, WA-03 Herrera Beutler
The above districts will see competition but not as severe as the following 28 seats will. The Democrats hold 16 and the Republicans 12 of them in the current House.
The Democrats are fighting hard to retain all of the following: CA-21 Cox, FL-26 Mucarsel-Powell, IA-01 Finkenauer, IA-02 Open, IA-03 Axne, ME-02 Golden, MN-07 Peterson, NJ-03 Kim, NM-02 Torres Small, NY-11 Rose, NY-22 Brindisi, OK-05 Horn, SC-01 Cunningham, UT-04 McAdams, VA-02 Luria, VA-07 Spanberger
The 12 seats that Republicans hold in the current House are very competitive, and the results may favor either party. They are: AZ-06 Schweikert, CA-25 Garcia, IN-05 Open, MO-02 Wagner, NE-02 Bacon, NJ-02 Van Drew, NY-02 Open, OH-01 Chabot, PA-10 Perry, TX-21 Roy, TX-22 Open, TX-24 Open