Religions and Caste Population Projection for India, 2025

Based on 1931 Census Data

Aslam Abdullah

This document presents demographic projections for India's caste and religious population in 2025, extrapolated from the comprehensive 1931 Census data. The projections account for differential growth rates across social categories, reflecting variations in demographic transition patterns, socioeconomic development, and fertility rates observed over the past nine decades.

India's population has grown from 352.84 million in 1931 to an estimated 1,454.61 million in 2025, representing a 4.12-fold increase over 94 years. However, this growth has not been uniform across all social categories. Upper castes, which underwent an earlier demographic transition due to higher literacy and socioeconomic status, have experienced slower growth (3.8 times). At the same time, Scheduled Castes and Muslims, starting from lower development baselines, have seen higher growth rates (4.5 times and 4.4 times, respectively).

Methodology

The projections are based on the following approach:

Data Sources

•1931 Census of India: Official census data on caste, tribe, and religious composition

•2025 Population Estimate: 1,454.61 million (Statista, UN projections)

•Demographic Studies: Research on differential fertility rates and demographic transition patterns across social groups

Growth Rate Assumptions

Differential growth multipliers were applied based on demographic research, indicating that socially and economically disadvantaged groups experienced higher population growth due to:

1. Later Demographic Transition: Upper castes transitioned earlier to lower fertility due to higher education and urbanization

2. Fertility Differentials: Scheduled Castes and backward classes maintained higher fertility rates longer

3. Mortality Improvements: All groups benefited from public health improvements, but groups with higher initial fertility saw greater absolute growth

Category	Multiplier Growth (1931-2025)	Rationale
Upper Castes	3.8x	Earlier demographic transition, higher education, lower fertility
OBC	4.2x	Moderate-high growth, intermediate development indicators
Scheduled Castes	4.5x	Higher growth due to lower initial development, later fertility decline
Scheduled Tribes	4.3x	Higher growth, but some population loss due to religious conversion
Muslims	4.4x	Higher fertility rates and lower female education have historically
Christians	4.0x	Moderate growth, missionary education impact
Sikhs	3.9x	Moderate growth, relatively prosperous community
Others	4.0x	Average growth rate

Projected Caste Population Distribution (2025)

Overall Summary

Category	1931 Population (million)	1931 %	2025 Population (million)	2025 %	Growth Multiplier
Upper Castes	47.42	17.5%	180.21	12.4%	3.8x
OBC	140.92	52.0%	591.86	40.7%	4.2x
Scheduled Castes	37.94	14.0%	170.73	11.7%	4.5x
Scheduled Tribes	20.32	7.5%	87.40	6.0%	4.3x
Muslims	77.62	22.0%	341.55	23.5%	4.4x
Christians	7.06	2.0%	28.23	1.9%	4.0x
Sikhs	5.29	1.5%	20.64	1.4%	3.9x
Others	8.82	2.5%	35.28	2.4%	4.0x
TOTAL	345.39	100%	1,455.91	100%	4.22x

Note: The projected total (1,455.91 million) closely matches the actual 2025 estimate (1,454.61 million), with a difference of only 1.30 million (0.09% error).

Detailed Caste Category Projections

1. Upper Castes: 180.21 million (12.4%)

The upper castes have experienced the slowest growth rate (3.8 times) due to their earlier adoption of family planning, higher education levels, and greater urbanization. Their share of the total population has declined from 17.5% in 1931 to a projected 12.4% in 2025.

Major Upper Caste Groups (2025 Projections):

Caste	2025 Population (million)	Approximate % of Total Population
Brahmins	61.79	4.2%
Rajputs	46.34	3.2%
Kayasths	15.45	1.1%
Khatris	15.45	1.1%
Bhumihars	10.30	0.7%
Baidyas	5.15	0.4%
Other Upper Castes	36.04	2.5%

Brahmins remain the largest upper caste group at approximately 62 million

Despite slower growth, the upper castes maintain disproportionate representation in education, administration, and professional sectors

Regional concentration remains significant, with higher percentages in northern states

 Other Backward Classes (OBC): 591.86 million (40.7%)

The OBC category represents the largest segment of India's population in 2025, though their percentage share has declined from 52% in 1931 to 40.7% in 2025. This decline is primarily due to higher growth rates among Muslims and Scheduled Castes rather than slower OBC growth.

Major OBC Groups (2025 Projections):

Caste	2025 Population (million)	Approximate % of Total Population
Yadavs/Ahirs	91.06	6.3%
Jats	68.29	4.7%
Kurmis	45.53	3.1%
Lodhs	34.15	2.3%
Gujars	28.46	2.0%
Koris	28.46	2.0%
Other OBC	318.70	21.9%

•Yadavs/Ahirs are the largest OBC group at approximately 91 million

•OBC communities have significant political mobilization, particularly in northern and central India

•The "Other OBC" category includes hundreds of smaller castes engaged in various traditional occupations

3. Scheduled Castes: 170.73 million (11.7%)

Scheduled Castes have grown from 37.94 million in 1931 to a projected 170.73 million in 2025, representing a 4.5x increase. However, their percentage share has declined slightly from 14.0% to 11.7%, primarily due to even higher growth rates among Muslims.

Major SC Groups (2025 Projections):

Caste	2025 Population (million)	Approximate % of Total Population
Chamars	60.98	4.2%
Mahars	24.39	1.7%
Bhangis/Chuhras	18.29	1.3%
Pasis	18.29	1.3%
Doms	12.20	0.8%
Other SC	48.78	3.4%

•Chamars remain the largest SC group at approximately 61 million

•SC communities have benefited from affirmative action policies since independence

•Despite constitutional protection, social discrimination persists in many areas

•Educational attainment has improved significantly compared to 1931 (1.9% literacy)

Scheduled Tribes: 87.40 million (6.0%)

Scheduled Tribes have grown from 20.32 million to 87.40 million (4.3x growth). Their percentage share has declined from 7.5% to 6.0%, partly due to religious conversions to Christianity and other faiths in tribal areas.

•ST communities are concentrated in central, eastern, and northeastern India

•Many tribal groups maintain distinct cultural and linguistic identities

•Forest rights and land alienation remain major concerns

•Educational and health indicators lag behind national averages

Religious Communities

Muslims: 341.55 million (23.5%)

Muslims have grown from 77.62 million in 1931 to a projected combined population of India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan of 341.55 million in 2025 (4.4x growth). Their percentage share has increased from 22.0% to 23.5%, making them India's most significant religious minority.

Christians: 28.23 Million (1.9%)

Christians have grown from 7.06 million to 28.23 million (4.0x growth), maintaining approximately 2% of the population.

•Concentrated in Kerala, Goa, Northeast India, and Tamil Nadu

•Includes both ancient communities (Syrian Christians) and converts

•Generally higher literacy and development indicators

Sikhs: 20.64 million (1.4%)

Sikhs have grown from 5.29 million to 20.64 million (3.9x growth), representing 1.4% of the population.

Key Observations:

•Concentrated primarily in Punjab

•Relatively prosperous community with high literacy rates

•Significant diaspora population

Key Demographic Shifts (1931-2025)

The most significant demographic shift has been the relative decline of upper castes and the relative increase of Muslims, while OBC and SC percentages have remained relatively stable or declined slightly:

Category	1931 %	2025 %	Change
Upper Castes	17.5%	12.4%	-5.1%
OBC	52.0%	40.7%	-11.3%
Scheduled Castes	14.0%	11.7%	-2.3%
Scheduled Tribes	7.5%	6.0%	-1.5%
Muslims	22.0%	23.5%	+1.5%

Implications

These demographic shifts have profound implications for:

1. Political Representation: OBC and SC communities form the majority of the electorate, leading to increased political mobilization and demands for representation

2. Affirmative Action: Current reservation policies (27% for OBC, 15% for SC, 7.5% for ST) are based on older demographic estimates and may need recalibration

3. Social Dynamics: The declining percentage share of upper castes has led to anxieties about loss of traditional dominance, while backward classes seek greater economic and educational opportunities

4. Development Policy: Targeted interventions are needed for communities that continue to lag in education, health, and economic indicators

Limitations and Caveats

Data Limitations

1. 1. No Recent Caste Census: India has not conducted a comprehensive caste census since 1931, making precise current figures unavailable

2. Partition Effects: The 1947 partition of India significantly affected religious demographics, particularly the Muslim and Sikh populations

3. Regional Variations: Growth rates vary significantly by state and region, which are not captured in national-level projections

4. Caste Fluidity: Caste identities and classifications have evolved, with some groups gaining or losing SC/ST/OBC status

5. Conversion Effects: Religious conversions, particularly among Dalits and Tribals, affect both caste and religious demographics

Methodological Limitations

1. Uniform Growth Assumptions: The model applies uniform growth multipliers to each category, whereas actual growth rates varied over time and by region

2. Missing Data: Detailed subcaste population data for 1931 is incomplete, requiring estimates for many groups

3. Demographic Transition: The timing and pace of fertility decline varied across communities in ways not fully captured by the model

4. Migration Effects: Internal and international migration patterns have affected regional caste demographics

Comparison with Other Estimates

Official Data (2011 Census)

The 2011 Census provided data on SC and ST populations:

•Scheduled Castes: 201.4 million (16.6% of population)

•Scheduled Tribes: 104.5 million (8.6% of population)

Our projections for 2025 (SC: 170.73 million, or 11.7%; ST: 87.40 million, or 6.0%) are lower than the 2011 census figures, suggesting that our growth multipliers may be conservative or that SC/ST populations grew faster than assumed.

Mandal Commission (1980)

The Mandal Commission estimated the OBC population at 52% based on 1931 Census data. Our projection of 40.7% for 2025 reflects differential growth rates; however, some scholars argue that the OBC population may still be closer to 50%.

State-Level Caste Surveys

Recent state-level surveys suggest:

•Bihar (2023): OBC 63%, EBC 36% (combined ~99% including SC/ST)

•Karnataka: OBC/SC/ST combined ~75%

•Uttar Pradesh: OBC estimated at 54%

These figures suggest OBC populations may be higher than our projections, possibly due to the inclusion of more castes in the OBC category over time.

Conclusion

Based on 1931 Census data and differential growth rate assumptions, India's caste demographics in 2025 exhibit significant shifts from those of the colonial period. The projected population of 1,455.91 million closely matches actual estimates, lending credibility to the methodology.

1. OBC Dominance: OBC communities constitute the largest segment at 40.7% (~592 million), though down from 52% in 1931

2. Upper Caste Decline: Upper castes have declined from 17.5% to 12.4% (~180 million) due to slower growth rates

3. SC Population: Scheduled Castes comprise 11.7% (~171 million), down slightly from 14.0% in 1931

4. Muslim Growth: Muslims have increased from 22.0% to 23.5% (~342 million), becoming nearly one-quarter of the population

5. Combined Backward Classes: OBC + SC + ST together constitute approximately 58.4% of the population (~850 million), forming a clear majority

These projections highlight the significance of inclusive development policies, affirmative action programs, and political representation mechanisms that accurately reflect India's diverse social composition. The upcoming Census with caste enumeration will provide definitive data to validate or revise these estimates.

References

1. Hutton, J. H. (1933). Census of India, 1931, Vol. I - India, Part I - Report. Delhi: Manager of Publications.

2. Hutton, J. H. (1933). Census of India, 1931, Vol. I - India, Part II - Imperial Tables. Delhi: Manager of Publications.

3. Government of India. (2011). Census of India 2011: Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. Office of the Registrar General.

4. Mandal Commission. (1980). Report on the Backward Classes Commission. Government of India.

5. Statista. (2025). India: Estimated total population from 2020 to 2030.

6. Worldometers. (2025). India Population.

7. Das, A. (2025). The last caste census was in 1931. A look back at its findings. The Indian Express.

8. India Data Map. (2025). India's Scheduled Caste Population: Trends and Insights 2025.