• Aslam Abdullah

Will Muslim Voters Deliver Senate to Democrats?

Forty percent of votes are already in, and the candidates' fate is in the ballot boxes. No one was expecting this. But it is happening. Democrats chances of taking over the Senate, the White House and increasing their majority in the House have increased against all odds.

In January, Trump was sure of his victory, and the Republicans were celebrating their majority in the Senate. The President's pandemic handling and the dictatorial attitude by the Republicans may change the electoral map. If the polls are accurate, the results may give the Democrats a landslide.

But Trump is not convinced with all the polls and believes that 2020 would produce the most incredible Red Wave by giving him a landslide.

In battleground states, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Biden lead polls. Only in Iowa, the President is up by one point.

Democrats shattered all fundraising and early voting records. The 2020 lection will see both parties spend $14 billion, which is more than the individual annual budget of 140 countries of the world.

The Democrats need to win five races to flip the Senate. Ten Senate seats are likely to change parties.

Of the following ten seats, eight are Republicans, and Democrats must win six to get a Senate majority. In all the ten seats, Muslims are between 1.and 1.75 percent of the state population. Everything depends on the voters' turnout. Some 35 percent of Muslim voters have already cast their franchise in these states. Will the remaining ones show up on election day? One should keep one's fingers crossed.




Alabama

The Democratic incumbent Doug Jones lags behind the Republican Tuberville by 11 percent. Unless a significant surge and unlikely switch towards the incumbent happens, Jones will lose this race. The state has a population of 5 million. The five largest ethnic groups in Alabama are White (Non-Hispanic) (58%), Black or African American (Non-Hispanic) (30%), White (Hispanic) (3%), Two+ (Non-Hispanic) (1.87%), and Other (Hispanic) (1.58%). 1.7% are Asian, 5.3% of the Alabama people speak a non-English language, and 98% are U.S. citizens.

Alabama does not register voters by party. Those voting Republican are 63 percent.


2. Colorado

The incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner is behind Democrat John Hickenlooper by 8 points in polls while Biden leads Trump by 20 points. Trump lost the 2016 election b five points.

The United States Census Bureau estimates that Colorado's population was 5,758,736 as of 2019. The racial composition of the state's population was: 81.3% White American (70.0% Non-Hispanic White, 11.3% Hispanic white), 7.2% Some Other Race, 4.0% Black or African American, 3.4% Multiracial American, 2.8% Asian American, 1.1% American Indian and Alaska Native, and 0.1% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. Of the 3.7 million voters, 42% identify as Democrats, 41% as Republicans, and 17% as independent. Muslims are one percent of the voters.


3. Arizona

The incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally is in her second bid for the Senate. She lost in 2018. Democrat Mark Kelly, a NASA astronaut, leads her in polls by a 6% margin.

Of 7.5 million population, White are 77.22%, Other race 6.79%, Native American 4.46%, Black or African American 4.39%, Two or more races: 3.64% and Asian 3.29%.

Thirty-five percent are Republican voters, 32 percent Democrats, and 33 percent are either independent or other party voters.


4. Maine

The incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins is in the toughest fight of her career. President called her not worth the work. The Democratic Sara Gideon is in the lead by two percent.

The population of Maine was 1,344,212 in 2019. Maine has the highest percentage of non-Hispanic whites of any state, 94.4% of the total population.

Three official political parties in the State of Maine are Democrat, Green-Independent, and Republican. Two other parties currently seeking status in the State of Maine: Libertarian and Socialist. The Democrats are 47%, the Republicans are 36, and independents are 17%


5. North Carolina

The incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is behind DDemocratic Cal Cunnigham by three points. Tillis is focusing on Cunnigham's character, while the Democrat is talking about healthcare. North Carolina has about 7.8 million voting-eligible adults and 7 million registered voters.

2,537,032 or 36% are registered Democrat, 2,344,632 or 33% registered unaffiliated, 2,104,881 or 30% are registered Republican; and 47,334 or 0.7% are registered to another party.

North Carolina's racial distribution is 71.2% White American, 22.1% African American, 1.6% American Indian, 2.8% Asian, and 9.1% Hispanic or Latino (of any race).


6. Iowa

The incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is two percent behind the Democratic Greenfield. However, both sides recognize this as a coin toss race. Republicans are 41%, and Democrats are 40%. Nineteen percent are unaffiliated. White are 90.28%, Black or African American: 3.51%, Asian: 2.40%, Two or more races, 2.10%, Other race, 1.25%, Native American 0.37%, and Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.10%


7. Georgia

Both Republican seats are in play. Democrat Jon Ossoff leads by one point against Purdue, and Warnock leads Loefner by 18 points. Getting more than 50% on Election Day is Ossoff's best path to victory. If neither candidate receives a majority, the contest advances to a January runoff.

Georgia has a population of 10.7 million, with 51 .4 percent women. According to 2018 U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 58.3% are White (52.2% Non-Hispanic White and 6.0% Hispanic White), 31.6% Black or African American, 4.2% Asian, 2.9%, some other Race, 0.3% Native American and Alaskan Native, 0.1% Pacific Islander and 2.7% from two or more races.

61.70% or 4,840,000, are registered. The Republicans and the Democrats have 41 percent each registered voters with 18 percent independents. In this state, Muslim votes, if organized and cast over 60 percent, would be crucial.


8. Montana

The incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines is facing two-term Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who' proved he can win statewide while Trump carries the state. The President had the 21-point in 2016; he has just a 6-point lead among likely voters in 2020). ship of Montana will be too much for Bullock to overcome. Bullock has a one-point advantage over Daines.

Republican voters are 49 percent, Democrats 30, and unaffiliated 21%.

Montana has about 1.3 million population.

The five largest ethnic groups in Montana are White (Non-Hispanic) (85.9%), American Indian & Alaska Native (Non-Hispanic) (6.16%), White (Hispanic) (2.75%), Two+ (Non-Hispanic) (2.61%), and Asian (Non-Hispanic) (0.798%).


9. South Carolina

The incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison are even in polls. Republican outside groups have spent $16 million in the state. The population of South Carolina was 5,148,714 on July 1, 2019. The state's racial makeup is 68.5% White (63.8% non-Hispanic white), 27.3% Black or African American, 0.5% American Indian and Alaska Native, 1.7% Asian, and 0.1% Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander, 1.9% from two or more races. 5.7% of the total population was of Hispanic or Latino origin of any race


10. Michigan

The incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters leads John James by four points in polls. Peters outraised James in the pre-general reporting period, and Biden's edge over Trump is solid. Michigan's population was 9,986,857 on July 1, 2019. White American are 78.9% (Non-Hispanic Whites: 76.6%, White Hispanic: 2.3%), Black or African American: 14.2%, American Indian: 0.6%, Asian American: 2.4%, Pacific Islander: <0.1%, Some other race: 1.5% and Multiracial: 2.3%

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© Aslam Abdullah