top of page
Writer's pictureAslam Abdullah

Will America Ride an Elephant or a Donkey on the November 5 election?



Trump supporters feel that this is the last chance for them to occupy the White House, while Democrats think that their loss will be a loss to democracy." Both are determined to fight the November election as a battle for survival. Democrats rely on their worker's unions to motivate their base, while the Republicans rely on Church strength to inspire voters. If evangelical Christians in the toss-up states come out in large numbers to cast their votes, Trump will be the next President.

If the Democrats can mobilize its union supporters to galvanize voters, Kamala will win. A defeat for either will not be easy to swallow.


Seven states with 93 electoral college votes will determine who wins the highest electoral office in the country. These seven states are Arizona with 11, Georgia with 16, Michigan with 15, Nevada with six, North Carolina with 16, Pennsylvania with 19, and Wisconsin with ten votes.

In a testament to the fierce competition in the 2020 presidential race, the Republicans secured a narrow victory in North Carolina, one of the seven key states, with a margin of just 74,483 votes.

Biden won Arizona with 10,457, Georgia with 11,845, Michigan with 154,188, Nevada with 33 596, Pennsylvania with 154, 186 and Wisconsin with 20 682 popular votes.

Trump has 24 solid or likely states with 219 electoral college voters behind him, and Democrats have 21 with 225 voters.

Of the 93 votes in seven states, Trump needs 51 and Democrats 45 to have 270 to be the country's next President.

Trump's potential path to victory involves winning Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, giving him 281 electoral college votes.

If Kamala wins Michigan and Wisconsin, she will have to find 20 votes from the remaining 63; if she wins Pennsylvania with the combination of any other four states, she is in. If she loses PA, she must go with Arizona with Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona with Georgia or North Carolina.


Voters Trend

Following is a summary of the Pew Research findings on voter trends.

Over the past three decades, registered voters have become more educated, racially and ethnically diverse, older, and more religiously diverse overall in the U.S. population.

Today, 67% of registered voters are White, 13% are Hispanic, 11% are Black and 4% are Asian. In 1996, when President Bill Clinton was running for reelection, 85% of voters were White, 4% were Hispanic, 9% were Black, and about 1% were Asian.

White voters make up 79% of Republicans and Republican leaners. In 1996, they constituted 93% of the party's voters. Hispanic voters have tripled from 3% to 9% of the GOP. Black and Asian voters are each currently 3% of the party.

Within the Democratic coalition, the share of non-Hispanic Whites has fallen 21 percentage points since 1996 (from 77% to 56%). The share of Hispanics has about tripled, from 5% then to 16% today. Asian voters have increased from less than 1% of the Democrats' coalition to 6% over the same period. The share of Black voters within the Democratic coalition has remained relatively stable, and they currently make up 18% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.

 About six in ten voters are ages 50 and older (29% are 50 to 64 and 29% are 65 and older). By comparison, 41% of voters were 50 and older in 1996.

Today, Republican and Republican-leaning voters tend to be older than voters in the Democratic coalition. (In 1996, there was very little difference between the age profiles of the two parties.)

About two-thirds of voters who align with the Republican Party are 50 and older (32% are 50 to 64 and 33% are 65-plus), compared with slightly more than half of those who associate with the Democratic Party (27% each for ages 50 to 64 and those 65 and older). The share of voters under 30 is twice as large among Democrats (16%) than Republicans (8%). A similar share in each party falls between the ages of 30 and 49 (27% among the Republican Party and 31% among the Democratic Party).

Among voters who associate with the Democratic Party, the share of voters with a college degree or more has approximately doubled since 1996, from 22% to 45%. The share of Democratic voters who have no college experience has fallen by about half (from 51% to 25%).

The Republican coalition has also become more educated but much more modestly. Today, the GOP's supporters are about equal between those who never went to college (31%), those who attended college but didn't receive a bachelor's degree (34%), and those who have a bachelor's degree or more (35%).

Education by race and ethnicity

The dual trends of increasing education levels and racial and ethnic diversity over the last three decades have resulted in dramatic changes to the electoral landscape.

White voters without a college degree remain the largest bloc within the Republican coalition, but their share has fallen by 17 percentage points since 1996 (from 68% to 51%).

28% of those who associate with the GOP are White voters with a bachelor's degree, roughly on par with the 25% who were White college graduates in 1996.

7% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters are Hispanic without a degree, up from 2% in 1996. Another 3% are Hispanic with a degree (1% in 1996).

Three-in-ten Democratic coalition voters are White with a bachelor's degree, up from 18% in 1996.

About a quarter (26%) are White voters without a degree. In 1996, this group made up a majority (59%) of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.

Black voters who do not have a bachelor's degree make up 13% of the Democratic coalition today, nearly identical to the 14% in 1996, while 5% of Democratic voters are Black college graduates (3% in 1996)

Hispanic voters without a college degree constitute 11% of Democratically aligned voters today (up from 4% in 1996), while Hispanic voters with a degree are 4% of the coalition (1% in 1996).

4% of voters who affiliate with or lean to the Democrats are Asian voters with a bachelor's degree, and 2% are Asian voters without a degree (in 1996, Asian voters made up no more than 1% of all Democratic voters).

Religious affiliation

Americans have become less religious recently, and the electorate reflects those changes. Two-thirds of voters identify with a Christian denomination, while about a quarter say they are religiously unaffiliated (26%). Fifteen years ago, about eight in ten voters were Christians (79%), and 15% were unaffiliated. (We used different questions about religious affiliation before 2008, so comparable data only goes back 15 years.)

The Republican coalition remains overwhelmingly Christian. About eight in ten Republican and Republican-leaning voters (81%) identify with a Christian religious denomination, down modestly from 2008, when 86% identified as Christian.

Among GOP voters, the shares identifying as White evangelical Protestants (30% now, 33% in 2008) and White Catholics (18% now and in 2008) have changed little over the past 15 years. White nonevangelical Protestants have declined as a share of Republican and Republican-leaning voters from 22% to 15% over the same period, while religious "nones" have grown from 9% to 15% of GOP voters.

About half of Democratic coalition voters are Christian (54%), while 38% are religiously unaffiliated, and 8% are of non-Christian faiths. As recently as 2008, Christians comprised 74% of Democratically oriented registered voters. Over this period, the coalition's share of religiously unaffiliated voters has roughly doubled.

Today, White evangelicals (5%) and White neo-evangelical Protestants (10%) make up 15% of the Democratic coalition, down from 28% 15 years ago. The share of Democratically aligned voters who are Black Protestants has changed very little over this period (15% then to 14% now).

About a quarter of voters say they are liberal (16%) or very liberal (8%), while 37% say they are conservative (26%) or very conservative (10%).

Almost four in ten voters say they are moderate (36%).

The Republican coalition is overwhelmingly conservative: 49% of Republican-aligned voters say they are conservative, and 20% say they are very conservative. About three in ten GOP voters say they are moderate (27%), and there are very few liberal identifiers in the party (less than 5%).

The Democratic coalition is more ideologically mixed than the Republican coalition. Among voters who associate with the Democrats, about half say they are very liberal (16%) or liberal (31%), while nearly as many say they are moderate (45%). Around 6% say they are conservative.






73 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page